Saturday, February 23, 2008

Much Ado About Nothing - Decision Analyst Poll

I wake up this morning and I see a poll from Decision Analyst, a Dallas-based market research that is too good to be true.

"a statewide survey of 678 registered voters planning to vote in the March 4 Democratic Primary. The survey was conducted February 20 and 21 by Decision Analyst, a major national survey research firm. Decision Analyst projections indicate that if the election were held today Obama would win 57% to 43% over Clinton. The survey�s margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, at a 90% level of confidence."

I have to admit that I was initially excited until I asked the question - who are these people and what is their track record? So I searched the web and all I got where other bloggers picking this up. It turns out no one can find a track record and it appears that this was an online poll which makes it very dubious.

While I have been hearing a lot of promising news on the ground, I think that this poll is way too off in variance-land to be believed. I would love it to be true, but I would rather stick to more conservative numbers to keep people working and if we do pull out a good win -- it will have more impact if everyone thought it was closer or that Clinton had it in the bag.


Here are some links to some Polls. I think while it is pretty much even and it is still pretty early, there are some guesses we can make for now. Clinton may get Ohio and Rhode Island, and Obama may get Texas and Vermont.
Clinton Has Edge in Ohio; Race in Texas Deadlocked
Reuters/Zogby Poll: Obama Pulls Away in National Polling
Obama Leads Texas in ARG Poll
Ohio and Texas Trend to Obama

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